Haiti – Economy : Towards an 8th consecutive year of GDP contraction
In the third quarter of fiscal year 2025-2026 (April to June), the Haitian economy continued to evolve within a national and international environment marked by geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and volatile energy prices.
In Haiti, the contraction in economic activity eased. After a temporary increase in April, annual inflation returned to 18.9% in June 2026, while the exchange rate remained relatively stable.
In this context, the BRH maintained a prudent monetary policy stance to contain inflationary pressures, preserve foreign exchange market stability, and strengthen the resilience of the financial system.
Annual inflation nevertheless returned to 18.9% in June, after reaching 21% in April, while the exchange rate remained relatively stable. Meanwhile, the annual decline in economic activity was limited to 0.6%, compared to 2.7% in the same period of the previous fiscal year.
Faced with risks related to geopolitical tensions, migration policies, and the economy’s financing needs, we maintained a prudent monetary policy stance. The BRH’s actions focused on liquidity management, foreign exchange market stability, and strengthening gross international reserves, which cover more than seven months of imports.
The macroeconomic outlook for the remainder of fiscal year 2025-2026 and the beginning of the following fiscal year remains highly uncertain. The main risks stem from persistent security constraints, the unfavorable evolution of the international geopolitical environment, weather conditions, and pressures on public finances. These factors could simultaneously affect economic activity, the supply of goods and services, the foreign exchange market, and price dynamics.
At the national level, persistent insecurity remains the primary factor likely to limit a sustainable recovery in economic activity. It continues to disrupt the country’s supply chains and reduce the mobility of people and goods. In this context, sustained strengthening of the security apparatus appears to be an essential prerequisite for improving the business climate and restoring the confidence of economic actors. However, without a sufficiently marked improvement in these conditions, the growth outlook remains unfavorable. Growth projections for 2026 remain downwardly skewed, with macroeconomic prospects predicting an eighth consecutive year of contraction in Haiti’s GDP, representing an annual rate between -1.9% and -1.5%.
At the same time, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose a major risk to the supply of strategic inputs. An escalation of conflicts could trigger new cycles of rising international commodity prices, with detrimental repercussions for price dynamics in Haiti. Similarly, the tightening of migration policies in major host countries poses a risk to the Haitian economy in the coming months. In the long term, the same is true for private remittances, which remain a vital source of foreign exchange for the Haitian economy. A deterioration in these flows could put further pressure on the foreign exchange market and international reserves.
Download the BRH’s monetary policy note (PDF in French, 20 pages) : https://www.haitilibre.com/docs/NSPM-3e-TRIM-25-26.pdf
HL/ HaitiLibre
