Democrats are projected to maintain their majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections – a phenomenon driven by opposition to the Trump administration’s policies and a Republican base that is less likely to vote on election day, according to a recent CBS News House estimate published on Sunday.
The GOP vote may be affected by the cost of living, the CBS report claimed, noting that Republicans were less likely than Democrats to say they would definitely turn out. What is more, Republicans who said their candidates are not talking about the cost of living were found to be less likely to vote.
The report also noted that, broadly speaking, voters see the Trump administration (not the previous Biden administration) as being responsible for the current state of the US economy.
Furthermore, while more voters oppose US President Donald Trump than support him, the CBS report noted that most Republican voters want a candidate who mostly, but not always, agrees with Trump. Similarly, Democrats do not want a candidate who agrees unilaterally with the national Democratic Party, per CBS.
Regarding international policy, CBS found that most voters – including one-third of Republicans – want an end to the war in Iran. Most feel the conflict has been a major factor in the high gas prices, the report noted.
Against that backdrop, the US and Iran could return to fighting after the US midterms, having made little progress toward a diplomatic end to the conflict, Axios reported on Wednesday.
A diplomatic stalemate increases the likelihood of a return to fighting, with some US officials telling Axios that Trump may order a return to combat operations after the US midterm elections in November.
This follows separate talks in New York between Qatari mediators and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, along with a US delegation that included Jared Kushner.
The CBS survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,166 US adults interviewed between September 30 and October 2, 2026. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to gender, age, race, and education, based on the US Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as the 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.5 points.
Esther Davis contributed to this report.
