Scandals could be shaping several races in the midterm elections, particularly in places where even small margins can change the outcome.
Transcript
SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Several Republican candidates in this year’s midterm elections have been immersed in scandal, and that’s playing an outsized role for a party trying to hold on to their slim majority in Congress. NPR’s congressional correspondent Claudia Grisales has more.
CLAUDIA GRISALES, BYLINE: These are the words that could come back and haunt Republicans in this year’s midterm elections.
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CHUCK EDWARDS: I can acknowledge poor judgment.
MAX MILLER: I’ve been portrayed as an abusive husband, an abusive father and a violent man.
KEN PAXTON: It’s actually very misrepresented what actually happened.
GRISALES: That’s North Carolina’s Chuck Edwards, Ohio Republican Max Miller and Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton. Each has faced scandal in recent months – all scandals they deny. Their races have also shifted from lean Republican to toss-ups. It’s compounding headwinds for Republicans who are facing the threat of a blue wave.
ELAINE KAMARCK: It’s the combination of the two that’s a killer.
GRISALES: That’s Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute. She says scandals could be part of a one-two punch for Republicans who are already facing a challenging political environment, dragged down by a tough economy and the Iran war.
KAMARCK: Even if 1% of your voters are influenced by a scandal, or an alleged scandal, it matters.
GRISALES: In Ohio, Miller’s chances fell after his ex-wife accused him of domestic violence, an issue that doesn’t play well with voters. It’s given Democrat Brian Poindexter, an ironworker, an opening. Here’s Kamarck again.
KAMARCK: We’ve gotten a lot more liberal on sex issues in terms of politics, but there’s still some big no-nos.
GRISALES: That’s what happened in North Carolina, where Republicans replaced Edwards after sexual harassment allegations. That put state GOP lawmaker Jennifer Capps Balkcom in a competitive fight with Democrat Jamie Ager, a farmer. And in the Texas Senate race, Democrat James Talarico’s odds grew after Paxton, who has a long history of personal and political scandals, ousted incumbent Republican John Cornyn in the primary.
JESSICA TAYLOR: In Texas, Ken Paxton is dragging down the entire ticket.
GRISALES: That’s Jessica Taylor, an editor at Cook Political Report. She says voters could give Paxton enough of a scandal penalty to create a perfect storm. It has put a state President Trump won by 14 points in play, which could have reverberations beyond Texas.
TAYLOR: Texas could potentially be the pivot state for Senate control.
GRISALES: Taylor says while control of the Senate is now a toss-up, Democrats are favored to take the House. Campaign spending in the coming days could preview which candidates still have the best shot, regardless of baggage. Republican strategist Leslie Shedd says national parties are in a critical decision window about where to shift resources to viable candidates and where to cut bait.
LESLIE SHEDD: Right now is the time when tough conversations are happening really just up and down the Beltway.
GRISALES: Shedd notes Democrats have also had their share of scandals – that includes Alaska’s Mary Peltola, who was trying to unseat incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan. She was recently accused of being verbally abusive with her staff and pushing one of her employees – claims she denied. Shedd says voter perception of scandal can also shift by district. What matters in one race in one state may not move the dial in another.
SHEDD: Scandal only applies here if it is impacting internal polling numbers. And all of this has to do with viability of the candidate.
GRISALES: President Trump is hoping his backing will alleviate voter concerns, but ultimately, it will be the voters who decide if an embattled Republican candidate was worth it.
Claudia Grisales, NPR News.
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