Why – outside newly promoted teams Hull City, Coventry and Ipswich – are Sunderland once again among the bookmakers’ favourites for the drop?
While results and where you finish in the table are ultimately all that matter, Sunderland’s underlying statistics from last season suggest repeating their success might not be so simple.
Expected goals (xG) tells us how well teams do the basics of creating lots of good chances and limiting their opponents to few low-quality ones, based on how hundreds of teams before them have scored or conceded from those opportunities.
Only relegated Burnley and Wolves had a lower xG difference than Regis le Bris’ side last season, while West Ham – with the fourth-worst overall xG – were also relegated.
While Aston Villa and Sunderland made a mockery of xG by finishing much higher in the table, the majority of sides finished mostly in line with their underlying numbers, showing those two overachievers were more the exception that proves the rule.
Only Manchester City and Villa overperformed their xG numbers by more than the Black Cats, who scored three more goals and conceded six fewer than expected given the number and quality of shots taken.
So taking the season as a whole, it seems that Sunderland’s performances weren’t as impressive as their results. But one event significantly affected part of the Black Cats’ season: the Africa Cup of Nations.
They were without six players – twice as many as any other side – during the tournament in December and January. While the club’s performances had already declined after a strong start, they suffered even more when their squad was stretched.
But once all those players returned, Sunderland’s underlying numbers improved throughout the rest of the season and they ended the campaign playing like a mid-table side.
With no Afcon this season, the Black Cats may not suffer such a drop in performance. If they continue the 2026-27 season as they finished the last then relegation should be only a remote possibility.
