President Donald Trump might not be the “central figure” in U.S. politics for much longer, a top pollster has suggested, speculating that America may be ready to “move on” from a man who has dominated the news agenda for over a decade.
Nate Silver, writing on X, observed: “It’s kind of striking how, apart from Iran, most of the Trump-related stories this summer have been boring and dumb (reflection pool, White House Correspondents’ Dinner) or kind of funny (FIFA), maybe we’re moving on from him being the central figure in American politics.”
Journalist John Harwood replied by pointing out that the killing of two people earlier this month by federal immigration agents in Maine and Texas was also newsworthy.
Silver responded: “Indeed, but there’s been more focus both from the mainstream media and even more specifically the partisan-leaning media on these low-stakes (frankly kinda stupid) stories instead.
“Maybe because they click better. But it feels lame duck-ish not ‘Trump as existential threat.’”
The president faces a crucial fall, with the midterms taking place in early November and promising to play a huge part in determining how the second half of his second and final term plays out.
If, as is widely expected, Republican candidates are wiped out at the polls, Democrats could retake the House of Representatives and possibly even the Senate, empowering its members to block Trump’s legislative agenda, launch congressional investigations into his administration’s conduct and perhaps even attempt to impeach him for a historic third time.
The prospect of Trump being rendered a lame duck appears distinctly possible given that citizens have routinely told pollsters that the soaring cost of living is their primary concern, with many agreeing that Trump has done too little to address an issue he has preferred to downplay while, arguably, exacerbating.
The president’s reciprocal tariffs policy – thwarted by the Supreme Court in February – has seen retailers pass on the increased cost of imports to consumers while his unpopular Iran war has caused global oil prices to spike, causing the U.S. national average gas price to stand at $4.09 per gallon Wednesday morning.
Trump’s approval rating has plummeted accordingly, hence the GOP anxiety over the midterms, with a new poll from The Economist and YouGov finding that 62 percent of American adults currently disapprove of his job performance while only 34 percent strongly or somewhat approve.
The figures represent a record low for the president in either of his two terms in the White House, as does his latest net job approval rating of -28, which compares with -9 at the equivalent stage in his first term in late July 2018.
YouGov concluded that Trump’s support is eroding “among several groups that had been core parts of his base,” noting that 63 percent of those in the 45-64 age bracket now disapprove of him, causing his net approval rating with that demographic to plummet from +15 at the start of his second term to -29.
Meanwhile, 52 percent of white Americans without college degrees now say they disapprove of the president, a slump from +27 in January 2025 to -6 now.
Equally significantly, Trump’s popularity is falling with non-MAGA Republicans, with 43 percent disapproving and just 55 percent approving.
The president has followed a first year back in power overshadowed by the Jeffrey Epstein scandal with a second that, as Silver suggests, has been riddled with farcical episodes and self-inflicted blunders.
From his troubled makeover of the Lincoln Memorial’s Reflecting Pool and the low visitor numbers at his Great American State Fair to his speech bombing at the restaged White House Correspondent’s Dinner Friday, Trump has faced a barrage of negativity and few policy wins to alleviate the tension.
