China’s President Xi Jinping and President Trump arrive to attend a state banquet at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in May.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
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Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
BEIJING/WASHINGTON — Chinese leader Xi Jinping is set to arrive in the United States on Wednesday evening for his first state visit in 11 years, opening high-stakes talks with President Trump at a pivotal moment for both men.
It is the second time the leaders are meeting this year after the Beijing summit in May, when they agreed to build a more stable bilateral relationship.
Both leaders are trying to shore up power at home. For Trump, the visit comes just over a month before the midterm elections, and for Xi, preparations for an all-important Party Congress start when he returns to Beijing.
But despite both countries projecting a willingness to build what China has dubbed a relationship of “constructive strategic stability,” fierce negotiations over weighty subjects such as AI and trade are underway.
“Under the water, the Chinese seem to have done a lot of kicking lately. And you know, if we have to, we’ll kick back,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Fox News interview in July.
A “fragile” detente
Trump has frequently spoken warmly about how he was treated during his recent visit to China, which included pageantry and a state banquet at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People.
One of the banquet attendees, Wu Xinbo, who directs the American Studies center at Shanghai’s Fudan University, said it was the warmest he had seen in the U.S.-China relations in years.
But since then, Wu said, things have been more “fragile.”
“In the last several months, the U.S. has continued to contain and pressure China in economic, technological [and] people-to-people exchanges,” he said.
For example, the U.S. imposed extra tariffs on Chinese exports over forced labor claims, and the Pentagon added Chinese tech giants on a military blacklist. The Federal Communications Commission banned new imports of Chinese humanoid robots and robot dogs over national security concerns.
Ups and downs are to be expected in a relationship as complicated as the U.S. and China’s, said international studies professor Zhang Yun at Nanjing University.
The key is to build high-level channels to deal with problems as they emerge and “mitigate the negative impacts,” he said.
Zhang said Taiwan, tech and trade are high on Xi’s agenda this trip. Discussions on the wars in Iran and Ukraine, plus tensions along the Korean peninsula, are also expected.
The U.S. is expected to reciprocate the high level of pomp and circumstance for Xi regardless of the tough negotiations expected — and Trump has publicly held Xi in high regard.
Rare earths and AI
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said this week that the two countries are still negotiating the potential extension of a rare earths truce that would ensure continued flow of Chinese rare earth products for the U.S.
China dominates the refining of rare earths and other critical minerals that are important to manufacture a range of products, from cellphones to weapons.
However, American officials have complained that China has not upheld its end of the bargain. NPR reporting shows that mutual distrust scuppered an offer from Beijing to extend the rare earths truce to the end of Trump’s term, in January 2029.
Trump and Xi are also expected to talk about AI governance.
China has “been trying to figure out, in talking to the United States, what kind of so-called guardrails or controls can be put on artificial intelligence,” said Rose Gottemoeller, a former NATO official who attends regular dialogues on nuclear proliferation with retired Chinese military officials.
“So it’s a combination nowadays of the older issues related to nuclear stability and new issues related to new technology,” she said.
China is interested in imposing safety measures, according to Zhang, but he said there is a lot of “mistrust” between the U.S. and China on the proposed solutions.
Taiwan on the table
In their previous meetings, Xi has repeatedly emphasized to Trump that Taiwan, a self-governing island Beijing claims as its own, is a red line and if mishandled could put the U.S.-China relations in “jeopardy.” Trump told reporters later that he was not interested in a war thousands of miles away.
“Let’s see if the United States can make [a] clearer statement opposing Taiwan independence,” said Zhang.
This spring, the Trump administration paused a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. Experts say Xi is expected to press Trump to maintain this momentum when he sits down with Trump on Thursday.
On Wednesday, as Xi departed for the U.S., China’s state news agency published a statement from the country’s cabinet-like State Council excoriating Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te. Lai is despised by Beijing, which suspects he is trying to lead Taiwan to declare formal independence.
“The most important issue that the Chinese always raise in preparation for these high-level visits is the topic of Taiwan,” says William Klein, acting deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing until 2021.
Trade discussions underway
Trump and Xi also agreed to create trade and investment boards back in May. Among the discussions is a reciprocal tariff reduction framework on products worth $30 billion or more.
China is expected to announce purchases of American agricultural products, and the U.S. is expected to announce tariff reductions on what are called 4A consumer goods, which include footwear and apparel, according to two people in the U.S.-China business community who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
However, no details of who will be on either trade or investment boards have been announced yet.
During Trump’s visit to China this spring, the U.S. said China agreed to purchase American beef, soybeans and 200 Boeing jets.
But data shows China is already behind schedule on its promises to buy American agricultural goods.
Jasmine Ling contributed to this reporting.
